March 22, 2024
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | AJ Dobson | Edmen Shahbazyan |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | -6 | 6 |
| Experience ELO | 961 | 1 109 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Edmen Shahbazyan's 6-fight experience advantage (10 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Edmen Shahbazyan for the expected result. Had AJ Dobson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | AJ Dobson | Edmen Shahbazyan |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 962 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | AJ Dobson | Edmen Shahbazyan |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:33 | 4:33 |
| Win Type ELO | 951 | 1 229 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +40 |
Edmen Shahbazyan earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 4:33, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | AJ Dobson | Edmen Shahbazyan |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 15 | 27 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 46 | 43 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 20 | 31 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 877 | 1 123 |
| ELO Change | -67 | +67 |
Edmen Shahbazyan controlled the striking exchanges with 27 vs 15 significant strikes, 62.8% vs 32.6% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Edmen Shahbazyan capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | AJ Dobson | Edmen Shahbazyan |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:15 | 0:49 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 10 |
| Ground ELO | 918 | 1 089 |
| ELO Change | -46 | +46 |
Edmen Shahbazyan landed 1 knockdown followed by 10 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | AJ Dobson | Edmen Shahbazyan |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 225 | 309 |
| Activity ELO | 970 | 1 117 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
Edmen Shahbazyan demonstrated standard activity with 309 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Edmen Shahbazyan capitalized on this activity level, while AJ Dobson's 225-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | AJ Dobson | Edmen Shahbazyan |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 967 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +19 |
Edmen Shahbazyan started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. AJ Dobson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | AJ Dobson | Edmen Shahbazyan |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 962 | 1 037 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

