September 22, 2023
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | AJ Fletcher | Bryan Battle |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 965 | 1 106 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Bryan Battle's 2-fight experience advantage (6 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Bryan Battle for the expected result. Had AJ Fletcher pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | AJ Fletcher | Bryan Battle |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 966 | 1 072 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | AJ Fletcher | Bryan Battle |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:32 | 4:32 |
| Win Type ELO | 999 | 1 291 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +25 |
Bryan Battle earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 4:32, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. AJ Fletcher was submitted.
| Metric | AJ Fletcher | Bryan Battle |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 25 | 45 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 51 | 80 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 29 | 63 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 955 | 1 141 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Bryan Battle controlled the striking exchanges with 63 vs 29 total strikes, 45 vs 25 significant strikes. Bryan Battle capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | AJ Fletcher | Bryan Battle |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:33 | 3:30 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 972 | 1 111 |
| ELO Change | -65 | +65 |
Bryan Battle controlled AJ Fletcher on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 3:30 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | AJ Fletcher | Bryan Battle |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 217 | 133 |
| Activity ELO | 976 | 1 120 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +30 |
Bryan Battle demonstrated solid activity levels with 133 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Bryan Battle capitalized on this activity level, while AJ Fletcher's 217-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | AJ Fletcher | Bryan Battle |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 971 | 1 086 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +19 |
Bryan Battle extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. AJ Fletcher is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | AJ Fletcher | Bryan Battle |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 966 | 1 072 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

