AJ Fletcher vs Themba Gorimbo

February 17, 2023

Welterweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

996
(+49)
AJ Fletcher
Winner: AJ Fletcher
Submission
Round 2 • 1:37

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

AJ Fletcher+49
Themba Gorimbo-44
956
(-44)
Themba Gorimbo

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
AJ Fletcher: +36Themba Gorimbo: -36

Performance Statistics

MetricAJ FletcherThemba Gorimbo
Total UFC Fights31
Experience Gap2-2
Experience ELO988964
ELO Change+36-36
💡

What Happened

AJ Fletcher's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding AJ Fletcher for the expected result. Had Themba Gorimbo pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
AJ Fletcher: +23Themba Gorimbo: -23

Performance Statistics

MetricAJ FletcherThemba Gorimbo
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO983977
ELO Change+23-23
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
AJ Fletcher: +77Themba Gorimbo: -49

Performance Statistics

MetricAJ FletcherThemba Gorimbo
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round22
Time of Finish1:371:37
Win Type ELO1 015951
ELO Change+77-49
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What Happened

AJ Fletcher earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 1:37, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Themba Gorimbo was submitted.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
AJ Fletcher: +33Themba Gorimbo: -33

Performance Statistics

MetricAJ FletcherThemba Gorimbo
Significant Strikes Landed76
Significant Strikes Attempted1710
Total Strikes Landed2315
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO980967
ELO Change+33-33
💡

What Happened

AJ Fletcher slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 41.2% vs 60.0% accuracy. AJ Fletcher capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
AJ Fletcher: +143Themba Gorimbo: -143

Performance Statistics

MetricAJ FletcherThemba Gorimbo
Takedowns Landed02
Takedowns Attempted02
Ground Control Time3:212:00
Ground Strikes Landed50
Ground ELO1 037857
ELO Change+143-143
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What Happened

AJ Fletcher dominated Themba Gorimbo on the ground with 0 takedowns, 3:21 of control time, 5 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
AJ Fletcher: +29Themba Gorimbo: -23

Performance Statistics

MetricAJ FletcherThemba Gorimbo
Days Since Last Fight183N/A
Activity ELO991977
ELO Change+29-23
💡

What Happened

AJ Fletcher demonstrated standard activity with 183 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, AJ Fletcher capitalized on this activity level, while Themba Gorimbo's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
AJ Fletcher: +26Themba Gorimbo: -23

Performance Statistics

MetricAJ FletcherThemba Gorimbo
Win Streak10
Win Streak ELO987977
ELO Change+26-23
💡

What Happened

AJ Fletcher started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Themba Gorimbo is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
AJ Fletcher: +23Themba Gorimbo: -23

Performance Statistics

MetricAJ FletcherThemba Gorimbo
Weight ClassWelterweightWelterweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO983977
ELO Change+23-23
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What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.