February 17, 2023
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | AJ Fletcher | Themba Gorimbo |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 988 | 964 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -36 |
AJ Fletcher's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding AJ Fletcher for the expected result. Had Themba Gorimbo pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | AJ Fletcher | Themba Gorimbo |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 983 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | AJ Fletcher | Themba Gorimbo |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:37 | 1:37 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 015 | 951 |
| ELO Change | +77 | -49 |
AJ Fletcher earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 1:37, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Themba Gorimbo was submitted.
| Metric | AJ Fletcher | Themba Gorimbo |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 7 | 6 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 17 | 10 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 23 | 15 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 980 | 967 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
AJ Fletcher slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 41.2% vs 60.0% accuracy. AJ Fletcher capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | AJ Fletcher | Themba Gorimbo |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:21 | 2:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 037 | 857 |
| ELO Change | +143 | -143 |
AJ Fletcher dominated Themba Gorimbo on the ground with 0 takedowns, 3:21 of control time, 5 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | AJ Fletcher | Themba Gorimbo |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 183 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 991 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -23 |
AJ Fletcher demonstrated standard activity with 183 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, AJ Fletcher capitalized on this activity level, while Themba Gorimbo's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | AJ Fletcher | Themba Gorimbo |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 987 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -23 |
AJ Fletcher started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Themba Gorimbo is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | AJ Fletcher | Themba Gorimbo |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 983 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

