February 28, 2020
Featherweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Aalon Cruz | Spike Carlyle |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (1 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Aalon Cruz | Spike Carlyle |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Aalon Cruz | Spike Carlyle |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:25 | 1:25 |
| Win Type ELO | 958 | 1 101 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +101 |
Spike Carlyle earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 1:25, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Aalon Cruz | Spike Carlyle |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 2 | 20 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 12 | 29 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 2 | 29 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 879 | 1 121 |
| ELO Change | -121 | +121 |
Spike Carlyle controlled the striking exchanges with 29 vs 2 total strikes, 20 vs 2 significant strikes, 69.0% vs 16.7% accuracy. Spike Carlyle capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Aalon Cruz | Spike Carlyle |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:05 | 0:07 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 14 |
| Ground ELO | 947 | 1 053 |
| ELO Change | -53 | +53 |
Spike Carlyle controlled Aalon Cruz on the ground with 14 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Aalon Cruz | Spike Carlyle |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Spike Carlyle demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Spike Carlyle capitalized on this activity level, while Aalon Cruz's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Aalon Cruz | Spike Carlyle |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 979 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +23 |
Spike Carlyle started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Aalon Cruz is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Aalon Cruz | Spike Carlyle |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

