May 28, 2010
Lightweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Aaron Riley | Joe Brammer |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 014 | 941 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Aaron Riley's 5-fight experience advantage (7 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Aaron Riley for the expected result. Had Joe Brammer pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Aaron Riley | Joe Brammer |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 993 | 958 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Aaron Riley | Joe Brammer |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 026 | 931 |
| ELO Change | +40 | -40 |
Aaron Riley earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Aaron Riley | Joe Brammer |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 46 | 37 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 104 | 107 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 124 | 51 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 933 | 917 |
| ELO Change | +43 | -43 |
Aaron Riley dominated the striking exchanges with 124 vs 51 total strikes, 46 vs 37 significant strikes, 44.2% vs 34.6% accuracy. Aaron Riley capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Aaron Riley | Joe Brammer |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 8 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:06 | 0:33 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 093 | 905 |
| ELO Change | +69 | -69 |
Aaron Riley controlled Joe Brammer on the ground with 3 vs 1 takedowns, 5:06 of control time, 3 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Aaron Riley | Joe Brammer |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 196 | 175 |
| Activity ELO | 1 018 | 963 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -20 |
Aaron Riley demonstrated standard activity with 196 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Aaron Riley capitalized on this activity level, while Joe Brammer's 175-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Aaron Riley | Joe Brammer |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 000 | 960 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Aaron Riley started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Joe Brammer is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Aaron Riley | Joe Brammer |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 993 | 958 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.