November 14, 2008
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Aaron Riley | Jorge Gurgel |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 005 | 963 |
| ELO Change | +44 | -35 |
Aaron Riley overcame a 4-fight experience disadvantage (3 vs 7 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Jorge Gurgel.
| Metric | Aaron Riley | Jorge Gurgel |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 984 | 975 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Aaron Riley | Jorge Gurgel |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 987 | 932 |
| ELO Change | +47 | -47 |
Aaron Riley earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Aaron Riley | Jorge Gurgel |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 98 | 70 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 222 | 199 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 133 | 91 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 943 | 898 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -32 |
Aaron Riley controlled the striking exchanges with 133 vs 91 total strikes, 98 vs 70 significant strikes, 44.1% vs 35.2% accuracy. Aaron Riley capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Aaron Riley | Jorge Gurgel |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:27 | 0:12 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 8 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 970 | 896 |
| ELO Change | +79 | -79 |
Aaron Riley controlled Jorge Gurgel on the ground with 1 takedown, 2:27 of control time, 8 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Aaron Riley | Jorge Gurgel |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 1 034 | 134 |
| Activity ELO | 985 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -26 |
Aaron Riley demonstrated extended layoff with 1034 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Aaron Riley capitalized on this activity level, while Jorge Gurgel's 134-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Aaron Riley | Jorge Gurgel |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 987 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -24 |
Aaron Riley started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jorge Gurgel is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Aaron Riley | Jorge Gurgel |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 984 | 975 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.