July 26, 2013
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Aaron Riley | Justin Salas |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 6 | -6 |
| Experience ELO | 953 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +42 |
Justin Salas overcame a 6-fight experience disadvantage (3 vs 9 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Aaron Riley.
| Metric | Aaron Riley | Justin Salas |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 955 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Aaron Riley | Justin Salas |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 994 | 1 011 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +11 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Justin Salas receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Aaron Riley | Justin Salas |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 26 | 54 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 172 | 140 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 26 | 58 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 861 | 924 |
| ELO Change | -45 | +45 |
Justin Salas controlled the striking exchanges with 58 vs 26 total strikes, 54 vs 26 significant strikes, 38.6% vs 15.1% accuracy. Justin Salas capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Aaron Riley | Justin Salas |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 9 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:30 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 989 | 1 110 |
| ELO Change | -81 | +81 |
Justin Salas controlled Aaron Riley on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 0:30 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Aaron Riley | Justin Salas |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 672 | 414 |
| Activity ELO | 976 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +19 |
Justin Salas demonstrated extended layoff with 414 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Justin Salas capitalized on this activity level, while Aaron Riley's 672-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Aaron Riley | Justin Salas |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 960 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +22 |
Justin Salas started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Aaron Riley is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Aaron Riley | Justin Salas |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 955 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.