May 9, 2002
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Aaron Riley | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (1 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Aaron Riley | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Aaron Riley | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 958 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +42 |
Robbie Lawler earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Aaron Riley | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 55 | 64 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 130 | 153 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 93 | 87 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 945 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | -55 | +55 |
Robbie Lawler controlled the striking exchanges with 64 vs 55 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Robbie Lawler capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Aaron Riley | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 6 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 8 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:26 | 4:29 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 9 |
| Ground ELO | 903 | 1 097 |
| ELO Change | -97 | +97 |
Robbie Lawler landed 1 knockdown followed by 9 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Aaron Riley | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Robbie Lawler demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Robbie Lawler capitalized on this activity level, while Aaron Riley's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Aaron Riley | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 979 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +23 |
Robbie Lawler started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Aaron Riley is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Aaron Riley | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

