Aaron Riley vs Robbie Lawler

May 9, 2002

Welterweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

963
(-37)
Aaron Riley
Winner: Robbie Lawler
Decision - Unanimous
Round 3 • 5:00

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Aaron Riley-37
Robbie Lawler+38
1038
(+38)
Robbie Lawler

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Aaron Riley: -21Robbie Lawler: +21

Performance Statistics

MetricAaron RileyRobbie Lawler
Total UFC Fights11
Experience Gap00
Experience ELO9791 021
ELO Change-21+21
💡

What Happened

Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (1 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Aaron Riley: -21Robbie Lawler: +21

Performance Statistics

MetricAaron RileyRobbie Lawler
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO9791 021
ELO Change-21+21
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Aaron Riley: -42Robbie Lawler: +42

Performance Statistics

MetricAaron RileyRobbie Lawler
Fight OutcomeDecision - UnanimousDecision - Unanimous
Last Round33
Time of Finish5:005:00
Win Type ELO9581 042
ELO Change-42+42
💡

What Happened

Robbie Lawler earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Aaron Riley: -55Robbie Lawler: +55

Performance Statistics

MetricAaron RileyRobbie Lawler
Significant Strikes Landed5564
Significant Strikes Attempted130153
Total Strikes Landed9387
Knockdowns Scored01
Striking ELO9451 055
ELO Change-55+55
💡

What Happened

Robbie Lawler controlled the striking exchanges with 64 vs 55 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Robbie Lawler capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Aaron Riley: -97Robbie Lawler: +97

Performance Statistics

MetricAaron RileyRobbie Lawler
Takedowns Landed06
Takedowns Attempted38
Ground Control Time1:264:29
Ground Strikes Landed09
Ground ELO9031 097
ELO Change-97+97
💡

What Happened

Robbie Lawler landed 1 knockdown followed by 9 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Aaron Riley: -21Robbie Lawler: +21

Performance Statistics

MetricAaron RileyRobbie Lawler
Days Since Last FightN/AN/A
Activity ELO9791 021
ELO Change-21+21
💡

What Happened

Robbie Lawler demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Robbie Lawler capitalized on this activity level, while Aaron Riley's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Aaron Riley: -21Robbie Lawler: +23

Performance Statistics

MetricAaron RileyRobbie Lawler
Win Streak01
Win Streak ELO9791 023
ELO Change-21+23
💡

What Happened

Robbie Lawler started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Aaron Riley is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Aaron Riley: -21Robbie Lawler: +21

Performance Statistics

MetricAaron RileyRobbie Lawler
Weight ClassWelterweightWelterweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO9791 021
ELO Change-21+21
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.