March 6, 2009
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Aaron Riley | Shane Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 975 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +34 |
Shane Nelson overcame a 2-fight experience disadvantage (2 vs 4 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Aaron Riley.
| Metric | Aaron Riley | Shane Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 965 | 1 040 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Aaron Riley | Shane Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 0:44 | 0:44 |
| Win Type ELO | 948 | 1 115 |
| ELO Change | -39 | +104 |
Shane Nelson secured a devastating KO/TKO in 0:44 of round 1. This explosive first-minute finish earned substantial bonus rewards for the exceptional performance.
| Metric | Aaron Riley | Shane Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 4 | 5 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 9 | 12 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 4 | 5 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 873 | 1 091 |
| ELO Change | -70 | +70 |
Shane Nelson controlled the striking exchanges, including 1 devastating knockdown. Shane Nelson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Aaron Riley | Shane Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:02 | 0:06 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 930 | 1 098 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +40 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Aaron Riley | Shane Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 112 | 84 |
| Activity ELO | 966 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +56 |
Shane Nelson demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 84 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Shane Nelson capitalized on this activity level, while Aaron Riley's 112-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Aaron Riley | Shane Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 968 | 1 046 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +23 |
Shane Nelson extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Aaron Riley is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Aaron Riley | Shane Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 965 | 1 040 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.