August 7, 2009
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Aaron Riley | Shane Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 014 | 1 016 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -39 |
Aaron Riley's 2-fight experience advantage (5 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Aaron Riley for the expected result. Had Shane Nelson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Aaron Riley | Shane Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 990 | 1 015 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Aaron Riley | Shane Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 009 | 1 054 |
| ELO Change | +61 | -61 |
Aaron Riley earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Aaron Riley | Shane Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 50 | 28 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 122 | 74 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 154 | 80 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 932 | 1 032 |
| ELO Change | +59 | -59 |
Aaron Riley dominated the striking exchanges with 154 vs 80 total strikes, 50 vs 28 significant strikes. Aaron Riley capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Aaron Riley | Shane Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 7:48 | 0:01 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 10 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 048 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +118 | -118 |
Aaron Riley controlled Shane Nelson on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 7:48 of control time, 10 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Aaron Riley | Shane Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 154 | 154 |
| Activity ELO | 1 014 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | +48 | -27 |
Aaron Riley demonstrated solid activity levels with 154 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Aaron Riley capitalized on this activity level, while Shane Nelson's 154-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Aaron Riley | Shane Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 996 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -26 |
Aaron Riley started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Shane Nelson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Aaron Riley | Shane Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 990 | 1 015 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.