September 23, 2011
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Aaron Riley | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 6 | -6 |
| Experience ELO | 983 | 1 064 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +43 |
Tony Ferguson overcame a 6-fight experience disadvantage (2 vs 8 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Aaron Riley.
| Metric | Aaron Riley | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 974 | 1 040 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Aaron Riley | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | TKO - Doctor's Stoppage | TKO - Doctor's Stoppage |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 005 | 1 111 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Tony Ferguson earned an early finish with a TKO - Doctor's Stoppage in round 1 at 5:00, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Aaron Riley | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 11 | 31 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 49 | 82 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 11 | 31 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 906 | 1 130 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Tony Ferguson controlled the striking exchanges with 31 vs 11 total strikes, 31 vs 11 significant strikes, 37.8% vs 22.4% accuracy. Tony Ferguson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Aaron Riley | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:02 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 070 | 1 091 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Aaron Riley | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 483 | 112 |
| Activity ELO | 997 | 1 073 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +52 |
Tony Ferguson demonstrated solid activity levels with 112 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Tony Ferguson capitalized on this activity level, while Aaron Riley's 483-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Aaron Riley | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 980 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +24 |
Tony Ferguson extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Aaron Riley is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Aaron Riley | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 974 | 1 040 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.