June 10, 2011
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Aaron Rosa | Joey Beltran |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 968 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Joey Beltran's 4-fight experience advantage (5 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Joey Beltran for the expected result. Had Aaron Rosa pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Aaron Rosa | Joey Beltran |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 979 | 1 017 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Aaron Rosa | Joey Beltran |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 1:26 | 1:26 |
| Win Type ELO | 963 | 1 118 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +73 |
Joey Beltran gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Aaron Rosa | Joey Beltran |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 73 | 88 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 179 | 188 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 135 | 185 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 943 | 1 071 |
| ELO Change | -57 | +57 |
Joey Beltran dominated the striking exchanges with 185 vs 135 total strikes, 88 vs 73 significant strikes. Joey Beltran capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Aaron Rosa | Joey Beltran |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:08 | 5:20 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 7 |
| Ground ELO | 921 | 1 033 |
| ELO Change | -79 | +79 |
Joey Beltran controlled Aaron Rosa on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 5:20 of control time, 7 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Aaron Rosa | Joey Beltran |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 140 |
| Activity ELO | 980 | 1 062 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +39 |
Joey Beltran demonstrated solid activity levels with 140 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Joey Beltran capitalized on this activity level, while Aaron Rosa's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Aaron Rosa | Joey Beltran |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 979 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +23 |
Joey Beltran started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Aaron Rosa is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Aaron Rosa | Joey Beltran |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 979 | 1 017 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.