November 11, 2011
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Aaron Rosa | Matt Lucas |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 002 | 966 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -34 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Aaron Rosa | Matt Lucas |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 001 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Aaron Rosa | Matt Lucas |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Majority | Decision - Majority |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 982 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
The Decision - Majority showed mixed judging, with Aaron Rosa earning reduced bonuses for the unclear victory margin.
| Metric | Aaron Rosa | Matt Lucas |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 59 | 19 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 99 | 39 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 256 | 48 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 012 | 931 |
| ELO Change | +69 | -69 |
Aaron Rosa dominated the striking exchanges with 256 vs 48 total strikes, 59 vs 19 significant strikes, 59.6% vs 48.7% accuracy. Aaron Rosa capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Aaron Rosa | Matt Lucas |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 10 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:52 | 6:52 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 947 | 974 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Aaron Rosa did not secure a significant ground advantage against Matt Lucas on the ground with 0 takedowns, 0:52 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Aaron Rosa | Matt Lucas |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 155 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 019 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -22 |
Aaron Rosa demonstrated solid activity levels with 155 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Aaron Rosa capitalized on this activity level, while Matt Lucas's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Aaron Rosa | Matt Lucas |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 003 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -22 |
Aaron Rosa started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Matt Lucas is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Aaron Rosa | Matt Lucas |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 001 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.