July 1, 2011
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Aaron Simpson | Brad Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 088 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Aaron Simpson's 4-fight experience advantage (7 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Aaron Simpson for the expected result. Had Brad Tavares pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Aaron Simpson | Brad Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 058 | 1 017 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Aaron Simpson | Brad Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 195 | 1 083 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -38 |
Aaron Simpson earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Aaron Simpson | Brad Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 43 | 13 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 66 | 33 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 127 | 41 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 253 | 1 067 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -36 |
Aaron Simpson dominated the striking exchanges with 127 vs 41 total strikes, 43 vs 13 significant strikes, 65.2% vs 39.4% accuracy. Aaron Simpson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Aaron Simpson | Brad Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 15 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 10:59 | 0:58 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 282 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | +49 | -49 |
Aaron Simpson dominated Brad Tavares on the ground with 2 vs 1 takedowns, 10:59 of control time, 3 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Aaron Simpson | Brad Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 98 | 182 |
| Activity ELO | 1 151 | 1 027 |
| ELO Change | +43 | -17 |
Aaron Simpson demonstrated solid activity levels with 98 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Aaron Simpson capitalized on this activity level, while Brad Tavares's 182-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Aaron Simpson | Brad Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 077 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -20 |
Aaron Simpson extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Brad Tavares is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Aaron Simpson | Brad Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 058 | 1 017 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.