June 18, 2010
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Aaron Simpson | Chris Leben |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 15 |
| Experience Gap | -11 | 11 |
| Experience ELO | 1 058 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +38 |
Chris Leben's 11-fight experience advantage (15 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Chris Leben for the expected result. Had Aaron Simpson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Aaron Simpson | Chris Leben |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 040 | 1 066 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Aaron Simpson | Chris Leben |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:17 | 4:17 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 160 | 1 290 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +85 |
Chris Leben gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Aaron Simpson | Chris Leben |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 43 | 42 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 78 | 92 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 56 | 66 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 228 | 1 286 |
| ELO Change | -66 | +66 |
Chris Leben slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 45.7% vs 55.1% accuracy. Chris Leben capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Aaron Simpson | Chris Leben |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 10 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:44 | 0:44 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 1 198 | 1 033 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Chris Leben did not secure a significant ground advantage against Aaron Simpson on the ground with 0 takedowns, 0:44 of control time, 4 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Aaron Simpson | Chris Leben |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 159 | 159 |
| Activity ELO | 1 088 | 1 222 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +27 |
Chris Leben demonstrated solid activity levels with 159 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Chris Leben capitalized on this activity level, while Aaron Simpson's 159-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Aaron Simpson | Chris Leben |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 054 | 1 096 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +26 |
Chris Leben extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Aaron Simpson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Aaron Simpson | Chris Leben |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 040 | 1 066 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.