July 10, 2012
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Aaron Simpson | Kenny Robertson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 8 | -8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 100 | 956 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Aaron Simpson's 8-fight experience advantage (10 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Aaron Simpson for the expected result. Had Kenny Robertson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Aaron Simpson | Kenny Robertson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 068 | 965 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Aaron Simpson | Kenny Robertson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 225 | 956 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
Aaron Simpson earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Aaron Simpson | Kenny Robertson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 48 | 29 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 70 | 50 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 97 | 42 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 266 | 934 |
| ELO Change | +11 | -11 |
Aaron Simpson dominated the striking exchanges with 97 vs 42 total strikes, 48 vs 29 significant strikes, 68.6% vs 58.0% accuracy. Aaron Simpson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Aaron Simpson | Kenny Robertson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 6 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 14 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 10:25 | 1:22 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 25 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 282 | 938 |
| ELO Change | +40 | -40 |
Aaron Simpson dominated Kenny Robertson on the ground with 6 vs 0 takedowns, 10:25 of control time, 25 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Aaron Simpson | Kenny Robertson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 147 | 522 |
| Activity ELO | 1 176 | 973 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -12 |
Aaron Simpson demonstrated solid activity levels with 147 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Aaron Simpson capitalized on this activity level, while Kenny Robertson's 522-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Aaron Simpson | Kenny Robertson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 090 | 967 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -16 |
Aaron Simpson started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Kenny Robertson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Aaron Simpson | Kenny Robertson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 068 | 965 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.