March 25, 2011
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Aaron Simpson | Mario Miranda |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 057 | 975 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Aaron Simpson's 2-fight experience advantage (6 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Aaron Simpson for the expected result. Had Mario Miranda pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Aaron Simpson | Mario Miranda |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 037 | 968 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Aaron Simpson | Mario Miranda |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 157 | 1 030 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -35 |
Aaron Simpson earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Aaron Simpson | Mario Miranda |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 59 | 14 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 75 | 15 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 122 | 60 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 217 | 1 035 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -35 |
Aaron Simpson dominated the striking exchanges with 122 vs 60 total strikes, 59 vs 14 significant strikes, 78.7% vs 93.3% accuracy. Aaron Simpson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Aaron Simpson | Mario Miranda |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 10 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 26 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 12:41 | 1:09 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 20 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 233 | 951 |
| ELO Change | +72 | -72 |
Aaron Simpson dominated Mario Miranda on the ground with 10 vs 0 takedowns, 12:41 of control time, 20 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Aaron Simpson | Mario Miranda |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 126 | 211 |
| Activity ELO | 1 108 | 1 027 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -20 |
Aaron Simpson demonstrated solid activity levels with 126 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Aaron Simpson capitalized on this activity level, while Mario Miranda's 211-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Aaron Simpson | Mario Miranda |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 052 | 973 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -19 |
Aaron Simpson started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mario Miranda is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Aaron Simpson | Mario Miranda |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 037 | 968 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

