October 4, 2012
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Aaron Simpson | Mike Pierce |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 071 | 1 155 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +31 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (11 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Aaron Simpson | Mike Pierce |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 047 | 1 089 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Aaron Simpson | Mike Pierce |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 0:29 | 0:29 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 181 | 1 297 |
| ELO Change | -44 | +91 |
Mike Pierce gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Aaron Simpson | Mike Pierce |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 28 | 10 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 44 | 21 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 50 | 21 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 170 | 1 310 |
| ELO Change | -96 | +96 |
Aaron Simpson controlled the striking through superior volume (50 vs 21 total strikes), significant strike advantage (28 vs 10), superior accuracy (63.6% vs 47.6%), 1 knockdown. However, since Aaron Simpson lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Mike Pierce's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Aaron Simpson | Mike Pierce |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:47 | 1:09 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 261 | 1 316 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Mike Pierce landed 1 knockdown followed by 2 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Aaron Simpson | Mike Pierce |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 86 | 119 |
| Activity ELO | 1 154 | 1 214 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +55 |
Mike Pierce demonstrated solid activity levels with 119 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Mike Pierce capitalized on this activity level, while Aaron Simpson's 86-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Aaron Simpson | Mike Pierce |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 069 | 1 111 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +25 |
Mike Pierce extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Aaron Simpson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Aaron Simpson | Mike Pierce |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 047 | 1 088 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

