February 14, 2012
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Aaron Simpson | Ronny Markes |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 7 | -7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 077 | 1 119 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +52 |
Ronny Markes overcame a 7-fight experience disadvantage (2 vs 9 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Aaron Simpson.
| Metric | Aaron Simpson | Ronny Markes |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 051 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Aaron Simpson | Ronny Markes |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 208 | 1 061 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Ronny Markes receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Aaron Simpson | Ronny Markes |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 55 | 62 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 84 | 97 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 75 | 78 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 255 | 1 102 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +36 |
Ronny Markes slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 62 vs 55 significant strikes. Ronny Markes capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Aaron Simpson | Ronny Markes |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:28 | 5:19 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 18 | 12 |
| Ground ELO | 1 242 | 1 162 |
| ELO Change | -60 | +60 |
Ronny Markes edged out Aaron Simpson on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 5:19 of control time, 12 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Aaron Simpson | Ronny Markes |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 131 | 186 |
| Activity ELO | 1 153 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +38 |
Ronny Markes demonstrated standard activity with 186 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Ronny Markes capitalized on this activity level, while Aaron Simpson's 131-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Aaron Simpson | Ronny Markes |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 073 | 1 054 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +31 |
Ronny Markes extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Aaron Simpson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Aaron Simpson | Ronny Markes |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 051 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.