January 10, 2010
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Aaron Simpson | Tom Lawlor |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 096 | 1 039 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -21 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (3 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Aaron Simpson | Tom Lawlor |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 062 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Aaron Simpson | Tom Lawlor |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 202 | 1 149 |
| ELO Change | +10 | -10 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Aaron Simpson receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Aaron Simpson | Tom Lawlor |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 36 | 52 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 108 | 128 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 74 | 60 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 294 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | +10 | -10 |
Tom Lawlor controlled the striking through significant strike advantage (52 vs 36). However, since Tom Lawlor lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Aaron Simpson's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Aaron Simpson | Tom Lawlor |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:28 | 2:37 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 231 | 1 074 |
| ELO Change | +63 | -63 |
Aaron Simpson controlled Tom Lawlor on the ground with 2 vs 1 takedowns, 4:28 of control time, 3 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Aaron Simpson | Tom Lawlor |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 136 | 185 |
| Activity ELO | 1 104 | 1 036 |
| ELO Change | +41 | -21 |
Aaron Simpson demonstrated solid activity levels with 136 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Aaron Simpson capitalized on this activity level, while Tom Lawlor's 185-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Aaron Simpson | Tom Lawlor |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 075 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -21 |
Aaron Simpson extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Tom Lawlor is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Aaron Simpson | Tom Lawlor |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 062 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.