January 31, 2014
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Abel Trujillo | Jamie Varner |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 107 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -32 |
Abel Trujillo overcame a 2-fight experience disadvantage (5 vs 7 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Jamie Varner.
| Metric | Abel Trujillo | Jamie Varner |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 043 | 995 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Abel Trujillo | Jamie Varner |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:32 | 2:32 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 218 | 1 120 |
| ELO Change | +98 | -48 |
Abel Trujillo gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Abel Trujillo | Jamie Varner |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 18 | 36 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 79 | 96 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 27 | 51 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 253 | 1 109 |
| ELO Change | +96 | -96 |
Jamie Varner controlled the striking through superior volume (51 vs 27 total strikes), significant strike advantage (36 vs 18), superior accuracy (37.5% vs 22.8%). However, since Jamie Varner lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Abel Trujillo's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Abel Trujillo | Jamie Varner |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:09 | 2:30 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 099 | 1 106 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Abel Trujillo did not secure a significant ground advantage against Jamie Varner on the ground through positional advantages and pressure, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Abel Trujillo | Jamie Varner |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 49 | 155 |
| Activity ELO | 1 166 | 1 052 |
| ELO Change | +111 | -22 |
Abel Trujillo demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 49 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Abel Trujillo capitalized on this activity level, while Jamie Varner's 155-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Abel Trujillo | Jamie Varner |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 053 | 1 011 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -21 |
Abel Trujillo extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jamie Varner is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Abel Trujillo | Jamie Varner |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 043 | 994 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

