December 15, 2017
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Abel Trujillo | John Makdessi |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 14 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 123 | 1 092 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +42 |
John Makdessi's 3-fight experience advantage (14 vs 11 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding John Makdessi for the expected result. Had Abel Trujillo pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Abel Trujillo | John Makdessi |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 040 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Abel Trujillo | John Makdessi |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 158 | 1 172 |
| ELO Change | -53 | +53 |
John Makdessi earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Abel Trujillo | John Makdessi |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 29 | 47 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 91 | 104 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 30 | 57 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 086 | 1 123 |
| ELO Change | -97 | +97 |
John Makdessi controlled the striking exchanges with 57 vs 30 total strikes, 47 vs 29 significant strikes, 45.2% vs 31.9% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. John Makdessi capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Abel Trujillo | John Makdessi |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:37 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 017 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
John Makdessi did not secure a significant ground advantage against Abel Trujillo on the ground with 0 takedowns, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Abel Trujillo | John Makdessi |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 315 | 371 |
| Activity ELO | 1 194 | 1 103 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +26 |
John Makdessi demonstrated extended layoff with 371 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, John Makdessi capitalized on this activity level, while Abel Trujillo's 315-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Abel Trujillo | John Makdessi |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 063 | 1 062 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +26 |
John Makdessi started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Abel Trujillo is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Abel Trujillo | John Makdessi |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 040 | 1 036 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.