May 24, 2013
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Abel Trujillo | Khabib Nurmagomedov |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 046 | 1 200 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Khabib Nurmagomedov's 2-fight experience advantage (4 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Khabib Nurmagomedov for the expected result. Had Abel Trujillo pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Abel Trujillo | Khabib Nurmagomedov |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 003 | 1 086 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Abel Trujillo | Khabib Nurmagomedov |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 056 | 1 273 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Khabib Nurmagomedov earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Abel Trujillo | Khabib Nurmagomedov |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 11 | 23 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 30 | 40 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 18 | 46 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 111 | 1 274 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Khabib Nurmagomedov edged the striking exchanges with 46 vs 18 total strikes, 23 vs 11 significant strikes, 57.5% vs 36.7% accuracy. Khabib Nurmagomedov capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Abel Trujillo | Khabib Nurmagomedov |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 21 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 27 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:37 | 10:29 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 15 |
| Ground ELO | 992 | 1 307 |
| ELO Change | -44 | +44 |
Khabib Nurmagomedov dominated Abel Trujillo on the ground with 21 vs 1 takedowns, 10:29 of control time, 15 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Abel Trujillo | Khabib Nurmagomedov |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 168 | 126 |
| Activity ELO | 1 006 | 1 145 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +31 |
Khabib Nurmagomedov demonstrated solid activity levels with 126 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Khabib Nurmagomedov capitalized on this activity level, while Abel Trujillo's 168-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Abel Trujillo | Khabib Nurmagomedov |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 006 | 1 108 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +24 |
Khabib Nurmagomedov extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Abel Trujillo is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Abel Trujillo | Khabib Nurmagomedov |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 003 | 1 086 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.