December 5, 2014
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Abel Trujillo | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 081 | 1 199 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Tony Ferguson's 2-fight experience advantage (8 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Tony Ferguson for the expected result. Had Abel Trujillo pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Abel Trujillo | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 025 | 1 114 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Abel Trujillo | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:19 | 4:19 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 178 | 1 299 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +61 |
Tony Ferguson earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 4:19, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Abel Trujillo was submitted.
| Metric | Abel Trujillo | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 15 | 20 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 76 | 55 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 16 | 38 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 212 | 1 258 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +41 |
Tony Ferguson edged the striking exchanges with 38 vs 16 total strikes, 20 vs 15 significant strikes, 36.4% vs 19.7% accuracy. Tony Ferguson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Abel Trujillo | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:02 | 2:02 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 064 | 1 261 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +35 |
Tony Ferguson controlled Abel Trujillo on the ground with 1 takedown, 2:02 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Abel Trujillo | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 308 | 99 |
| Activity ELO | 1 148 | 1 264 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +44 |
Tony Ferguson demonstrated solid activity levels with 99 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Tony Ferguson capitalized on this activity level, while Abel Trujillo's 308-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Abel Trujillo | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 036 | 1 146 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +24 |
Tony Ferguson extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Abel Trujillo is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Abel Trujillo | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 025 | 1 114 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.