June 2, 2023
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Abubakar Nurmagomedov | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 13 |
| Experience Gap | -9 | 9 |
| Experience ELO | 1 009 | 1 204 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos's 9-fight experience advantage (13 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos for the expected result. Had Abubakar Nurmagomedov pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Abubakar Nurmagomedov | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 002 | 1 121 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Abubakar Nurmagomedov | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 034 | 1 336 |
| ELO Change | -3 | +3 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Abubakar Nurmagomedov | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 29 | 42 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 54 | 113 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 48 | 50 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 003 | 1 193 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos edged the striking exchanges with 42 vs 29 significant strikes, 37.2% vs 53.7% accuracy. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Abubakar Nurmagomedov | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 8 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 6:16 | 0:15 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 011 | 1 228 |
| ELO Change | -10 | +10 |
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos did not secure a significant ground advantage against Abubakar Nurmagomedov on the ground with 0 takedowns, 0:15 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Abubakar Nurmagomedov | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 224 | 581 |
| Activity ELO | 1 003 | 1 196 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +10 |
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos demonstrated extended layoff with 581 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos capitalized on this activity level, while Abubakar Nurmagomedov's 224-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Abubakar Nurmagomedov | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 012 | 1 194 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +15 |
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Abubakar Nurmagomedov is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Abubakar Nurmagomedov | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 002 | 1 121 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

