November 3, 2023
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Abus Magomedov | Caio Borralho |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 028 | 1 175 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Caio Borralho's 2-fight experience advantage (5 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Caio Borralho for the expected result. Had Abus Magomedov pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Abus Magomedov | Caio Borralho |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 989 | 1 100 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Abus Magomedov | Caio Borralho |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 072 | 1 255 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Caio Borralho earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Abus Magomedov | Caio Borralho |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 38 | 51 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 107 | 103 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 39 | 70 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 020 | 1 190 |
| ELO Change | -53 | +53 |
Caio Borralho controlled the striking exchanges with 70 vs 39 total strikes, 51 vs 38 significant strikes, 49.5% vs 35.5% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Caio Borralho capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Abus Magomedov | Caio Borralho |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 2:17 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 013 | 1 283 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Caio Borralho landed 1 knockdown followed by 1 ground strike. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Abus Magomedov | Caio Borralho |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 127 | 190 |
| Activity ELO | 1 004 | 1 183 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +15 |
Caio Borralho demonstrated standard activity with 190 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Caio Borralho capitalized on this activity level, while Abus Magomedov's 127-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Abus Magomedov | Caio Borralho |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 5 |
| Win Streak ELO | 996 | 1 135 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +29 |
Caio Borralho continued building serious momentum with a 5-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Abus Magomedov's now at 0.
| Metric | Abus Magomedov | Caio Borralho |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 989 | 1 100 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

