June 14, 2024
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Adam Fugitt | Josh Quinlan |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 022 | 913 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -17 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (4 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Adam Fugitt | Josh Quinlan |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 004 | 956 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Adam Fugitt | Josh Quinlan |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 049 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +9 | -9 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Adam Fugitt receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Adam Fugitt | Josh Quinlan |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 80 | 53 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 205 | 126 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 80 | 53 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 006 | 883 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Adam Fugitt controlled the striking exchanges with 80 vs 53 total strikes, 80 vs 53 significant strikes. Adam Fugitt capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Adam Fugitt | Josh Quinlan |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 014 | 927 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
The fight remained exclusively on the feet with zero ground action, resulting in neutral ground scoring for both fighters.
| Metric | Adam Fugitt | Josh Quinlan |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 371 | 119 |
| Activity ELO | 1 008 | 960 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -20 |
Adam Fugitt demonstrated extended layoff with 371 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Adam Fugitt capitalized on this activity level, while Josh Quinlan's 119-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Adam Fugitt | Josh Quinlan |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 010 | 958 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Adam Fugitt started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Josh Quinlan is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Adam Fugitt | Josh Quinlan |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 004 | 956 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.