July 29, 2022
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Adam Fugitt | Michael Morales |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 977 | 1 123 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (1 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Adam Fugitt | Michael Morales |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 980 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Adam Fugitt | Michael Morales |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 1:09 | 1:09 |
| Win Type ELO | 973 | 1 182 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +55 |
Michael Morales gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Adam Fugitt | Michael Morales |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 64 | 83 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 113 | 151 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 70 | 89 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 2 |
| Striking ELO | 926 | 1 218 |
| ELO Change | -74 | +74 |
Michael Morales dominated the striking exchanges with 83 vs 64 significant strikes, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Michael Morales capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Adam Fugitt | Michael Morales |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 8 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:51 | 0:12 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 7 |
| Ground ELO | 975 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Michael Morales landed 2 knockdowns followed by 7 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Adam Fugitt | Michael Morales |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 189 |
| Activity ELO | 981 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +24 |
Michael Morales demonstrated standard activity with 189 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Michael Morales capitalized on this activity level, while Adam Fugitt's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Adam Fugitt | Michael Morales |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 981 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +23 |
Michael Morales extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Adam Fugitt is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Adam Fugitt | Michael Morales |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 980 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.