November 2, 2018
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Adam Wieczorek | Marcos Rogerio de Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | -5 | 5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 048 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +41 |
Marcos Rogerio de Lima's 5-fight experience advantage (8 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Marcos Rogerio de Lima for the expected result. Had Adam Wieczorek pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Adam Wieczorek | Marcos Rogerio de Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 017 | 1 037 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Adam Wieczorek | Marcos Rogerio de Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 074 | 1 209 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
Marcos Rogerio de Lima earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Adam Wieczorek | Marcos Rogerio de Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 7 | 28 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 38 | 59 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 31 | 70 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 012 | 1 204 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
Marcos Rogerio de Lima controlled the striking exchanges with 70 vs 31 total strikes, 28 vs 7 significant strikes, 47.5% vs 18.4% accuracy. Marcos Rogerio de Lima capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Adam Wieczorek | Marcos Rogerio de Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:15 | 8:21 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 8 |
| Ground ELO | 954 | 1 054 |
| ELO Change | -114 | +114 |
Marcos Rogerio de Lima dominated Adam Wieczorek on the ground with 3 vs 1 takedowns, 8:21 of control time, 8 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Adam Wieczorek | Marcos Rogerio de Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 204 | 561 |
| Activity ELO | 1 043 | 1 093 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +18 |
Marcos Rogerio de Lima demonstrated extended layoff with 561 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Marcos Rogerio de Lima capitalized on this activity level, while Adam Wieczorek's 204-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Adam Wieczorek | Marcos Rogerio de Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 023 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +24 |
Marcos Rogerio de Lima started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Adam Wieczorek is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Adam Wieczorek | Marcos Rogerio de Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 017 | 1 037 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.