January 24, 2014
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Adriano Martins | Donald Cerrone |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 12 |
| Experience Gap | -10 | 10 |
| Experience ELO | 1 066 | 1 233 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Donald Cerrone's 10-fight experience advantage (12 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Donald Cerrone for the expected result. Had Adriano Martins pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Adriano Martins | Donald Cerrone |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 006 | 1 111 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Adriano Martins | Donald Cerrone |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:40 | 4:40 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 066 | 1 376 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +33 |
Donald Cerrone earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 4:40, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Adriano Martins | Donald Cerrone |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 13 | 16 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 29 | 37 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 13 | 16 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 019 | 1 299 |
| ELO Change | -45 | +45 |
Donald Cerrone controlled the striking exchanges, including 1 devastating knockdown. Donald Cerrone capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Adriano Martins | Donald Cerrone |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:06 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 150 | 1 376 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Adriano Martins | Donald Cerrone |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 77 | 70 |
| Activity ELO | 1 019 | 1 336 |
| ELO Change | -7 | +20 |
Donald Cerrone demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 70 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Donald Cerrone capitalized on this activity level, while Adriano Martins's 77-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Adriano Martins | Donald Cerrone |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 012 | 1 146 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +18 |
Donald Cerrone extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Adriano Martins is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Adriano Martins | Donald Cerrone |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 006 | 1 110 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.