October 2, 2015
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Adriano Martins | Islam Makhachev |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 146 | 999 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Adriano Martins's 3-fight experience advantage (5 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Adriano Martins for the expected result. Had Islam Makhachev pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Adriano Martins | Islam Makhachev |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 069 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Adriano Martins | Islam Makhachev |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:46 | 1:46 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 229 | 1 033 |
| ELO Change | +76 | -32 |
Adriano Martins earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 1:46, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Adriano Martins | Islam Makhachev |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 3 | 4 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 7 | 15 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 3 | 4 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 193 | 993 |
| ELO Change | +70 | -70 |
Adriano Martins controlled the striking exchanges with 42.9% vs 26.7% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Adriano Martins capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Adriano Martins | Islam Makhachev |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:02 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 249 | 1 110 |
| ELO Change | +45 | -45 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Adriano Martins | Islam Makhachev |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 223 | 133 |
| Activity ELO | 1 104 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -17 |
Adriano Martins demonstrated standard activity with 223 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Adriano Martins capitalized on this activity level, while Islam Makhachev's 133-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Adriano Martins | Islam Makhachev |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 085 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -19 |
Adriano Martins extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Islam Makhachev is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Adriano Martins | Islam Makhachev |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 068 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.