March 20, 2015
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Akbarh Arreola | Francisco Trinaldo |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | -6 | 6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 000 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Francisco Trinaldo's 6-fight experience advantage (9 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Francisco Trinaldo for the expected result. Had Akbarh Arreola pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Akbarh Arreola | Francisco Trinaldo |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 982 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Akbarh Arreola | Francisco Trinaldo |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 042 | 1 141 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +40 |
Francisco Trinaldo earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Akbarh Arreola | Francisco Trinaldo |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 34 | 39 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 74 | 115 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 82 | 91 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 043 | 1 089 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Francisco Trinaldo slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 39 vs 34 significant strikes, 33.9% vs 45.9% accuracy. Francisco Trinaldo capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Akbarh Arreola | Francisco Trinaldo |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 9:17 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 17 |
| Ground ELO | 977 | 1 075 |
| ELO Change | -97 | +97 |
Francisco Trinaldo controlled Akbarh Arreola on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 9:17 of control time, 17 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Akbarh Arreola | Francisco Trinaldo |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 119 | 190 |
| Activity ELO | 1 018 | 1 140 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +20 |
Francisco Trinaldo demonstrated standard activity with 190 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Francisco Trinaldo capitalized on this activity level, while Akbarh Arreola's 119-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Akbarh Arreola | Francisco Trinaldo |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 987 | 1 070 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +22 |
Francisco Trinaldo extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Akbarh Arreola is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Akbarh Arreola | Francisco Trinaldo |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 982 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

