May 3, 2019
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Al Iaquinta | Donald Cerrone |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 31 |
| Experience Gap | -18 | 18 |
| Experience ELO | 1 244 | 1 320 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Donald Cerrone's 18-fight experience advantage (31 vs 13 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Donald Cerrone for the expected result. Had Al Iaquinta pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Al Iaquinta | Donald Cerrone |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 113 | 1 209 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Al Iaquinta | Donald Cerrone |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 398 | 1 557 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Donald Cerrone earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Al Iaquinta | Donald Cerrone |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 90 | 138 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 223 | 361 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 90 | 140 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 2 |
| Striking ELO | 1 283 | 1 516 |
| ELO Change | -72 | +72 |
Donald Cerrone dominated the striking exchanges with 140 vs 90 total strikes, 138 vs 90 significant strikes, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Donald Cerrone capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Al Iaquinta | Donald Cerrone |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:22 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 1 256 | 1 442 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +37 |
Donald Cerrone landed 2 knockdowns followed by 6 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Al Iaquinta | Donald Cerrone |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 140 | 105 |
| Activity ELO | 1 345 | 1 533 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +32 |
Donald Cerrone demonstrated solid activity levels with 105 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Donald Cerrone capitalized on this activity level, while Al Iaquinta's 140-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Al Iaquinta | Donald Cerrone |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 178 | 1 303 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +20 |
Donald Cerrone extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Al Iaquinta is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Al Iaquinta | Donald Cerrone |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 112 | 1 200 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.