April 3, 2015
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Al Iaquinta | Jorge Masvidal |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 210 | 1 137 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Al Iaquinta's 2-fight experience advantage (9 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Al Iaquinta for the expected result. Had Jorge Masvidal pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Al Iaquinta | Jorge Masvidal |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 105 | 1 061 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Al Iaquinta | Jorge Masvidal |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 357 | 1 202 |
| ELO Change | +6 | -6 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Al Iaquinta receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Al Iaquinta | Jorge Masvidal |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 55 | 83 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 153 | 170 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 55 | 86 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 335 | 1 175 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -13 |
Jorge Masvidal controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (86 vs 55 total strikes), significant strike advantage (83 vs 55), superior accuracy (48.8% vs 35.9%). However, since Jorge Masvidal lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Al Iaquinta's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Al Iaquinta | Jorge Masvidal |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 9 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:07 | 0:25 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 1 262 | 1 245 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Al Iaquinta did not secure a significant ground advantage against Jorge Masvidal on the ground through positional advantages and pressure, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Al Iaquinta | Jorge Masvidal |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 63 | 189 |
| Activity ELO | 1 339 | 1 176 |
| ELO Change | +45 | -15 |
Al Iaquinta demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 63 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Al Iaquinta capitalized on this activity level, while Jorge Masvidal's 189-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Al Iaquinta | Jorge Masvidal |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 4 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 140 | 1 081 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -20 |
Al Iaquinta extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jorge Masvidal is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Al Iaquinta | Jorge Masvidal |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 104 | 1 061 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

