January 31, 2014
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Al Iaquinta | Kevin Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 075 | 973 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Al Iaquinta's 3-fight experience advantage (4 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Al Iaquinta for the expected result. Had Kevin Lee pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Al Iaquinta | Kevin Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 042 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Al Iaquinta | Kevin Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 091 | 965 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -35 |
Al Iaquinta earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Al Iaquinta | Kevin Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 49 | 39 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 122 | 142 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 50 | 51 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 088 | 950 |
| ELO Change | +50 | -50 |
Al Iaquinta controlled the striking exchanges with 49 vs 39 significant strikes, 40.2% vs 27.5% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Al Iaquinta capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Al Iaquinta | Kevin Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 8 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:48 | 4:10 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 11 |
| Ground ELO | 1 126 | 985 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
Al Iaquinta landed 1 knockdown followed by 2 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Al Iaquinta | Kevin Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 99 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 148 | 986 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -14 |
Al Iaquinta demonstrated solid activity levels with 99 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Al Iaquinta capitalized on this activity level, while Kevin Lee's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Al Iaquinta | Kevin Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 054 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -19 |
Al Iaquinta extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Kevin Lee is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Al Iaquinta | Kevin Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 042 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.