November 5, 2021
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Al Iaquinta | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 15 | 17 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 168 | 1 148 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +40 |
King Green's 2-fight experience advantage (17 vs 15 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding King Green for the expected result. Had Al Iaquinta pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Al Iaquinta | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 066 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Al Iaquinta | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:25 | 2:25 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 296 | 1 290 |
| ELO Change | -65 | +147 |
King Green earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 2:25, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Al Iaquinta | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 10 | 28 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 30 | 40 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 10 | 29 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 098 | 1 314 |
| ELO Change | -121 | +121 |
King Green controlled the striking exchanges with 28 vs 10 significant strikes, 70.0% vs 33.3% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. King Green capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Al Iaquinta | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:15 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 12 |
| Ground ELO | 1 135 | 1 230 |
| ELO Change | -56 | +56 |
King Green landed 1 knockdown followed by 12 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Al Iaquinta | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 764 | 92 |
| Activity ELO | 1 292 | 1 299 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +65 |
King Green demonstrated solid activity levels with 92 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, King Green capitalized on this activity level, while Al Iaquinta's 764-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Al Iaquinta | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 127 | 1 087 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +29 |
King Green started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Al Iaquinta is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Al Iaquinta | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 065 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.