January 16, 2009
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alan Belcher | Denis Kang |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 7 | -7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 039 | 969 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Alan Belcher's 7-fight experience advantage (8 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Alan Belcher for the expected result. Had Denis Kang pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alan Belcher | Denis Kang |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 043 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alan Belcher | Denis Kang |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:36 | 4:36 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 134 | 968 |
| ELO Change | +49 | -32 |
Alan Belcher earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 4:36, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Denis Kang was submitted.
| Metric | Alan Belcher | Denis Kang |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 9 | 26 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 28 | 55 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 9 | 54 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 979 | 976 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Denis Kang controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (54 vs 9 total strikes), significant strike advantage (26 vs 9), superior accuracy (47.3% vs 32.1%). However, since Denis Kang lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Alan Belcher's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Alan Belcher | Denis Kang |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:20 | 5:43 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 7 |
| Ground ELO | 1 034 | 957 |
| ELO Change | +43 | -43 |
Alan Belcher edged out Denis Kang on the ground with 0 takedowns, 0:20 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Alan Belcher | Denis Kang |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 123 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 173 | 987 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -13 |
Alan Belcher demonstrated solid activity levels with 123 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Alan Belcher capitalized on this activity level, while Denis Kang's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alan Belcher | Denis Kang |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 059 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -19 |
Alan Belcher extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Denis Kang is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alan Belcher | Denis Kang |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 043 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

