September 16, 2008
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alan Belcher | Ed Herman |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 008 | 966 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -22 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (7 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Alan Belcher | Ed Herman |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 023 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alan Belcher | Ed Herman |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 085 | 1 071 |
| ELO Change | +11 | -11 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Alan Belcher receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Alan Belcher | Ed Herman |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 54 | 43 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 90 | 130 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 67 | 86 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 955 | 1 061 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -35 |
Alan Belcher edged the striking exchanges with 54 vs 43 significant strikes, 60.0% vs 33.1% accuracy. Alan Belcher capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alan Belcher | Ed Herman |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 12 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:24 | 4:49 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 10 |
| Ground ELO | 991 | 1 069 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -29 |
Alan Belcher did not secure a significant ground advantage against Ed Herman on the ground with 0 takedowns, 2:24 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Alan Belcher | Ed Herman |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 151 | 151 |
| Activity ELO | 1 148 | 1 040 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -17 |
Alan Belcher demonstrated solid activity levels with 151 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Alan Belcher capitalized on this activity level, while Ed Herman's 151-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alan Belcher | Ed Herman |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 036 | 989 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Alan Belcher started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Ed Herman is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alan Belcher | Ed Herman |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 023 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

