April 18, 2008
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alan Belcher | Jason Day |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 975 | 1 086 |
| ELO Change | -86 | +86 |
Jason Day overcame a 5-fight experience disadvantage (1 vs 6 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Alan Belcher.
| Metric | Alan Belcher | Jason Day |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 002 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alan Belcher | Jason Day |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:58 | 3:58 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 074 | 1 123 |
| ELO Change | -57 | +123 |
Jason Day earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 3:58, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Alan Belcher | Jason Day |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 3 | 29 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 8 | 43 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 6 | 67 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 920 | 1 135 |
| ELO Change | -135 | +135 |
Jason Day dominated the striking exchanges with 67 vs 6 total strikes, 29 vs 3 significant strikes, 67.4% vs 37.5% accuracy. Jason Day capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alan Belcher | Jason Day |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:42 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 962 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Jason Day did not secure a significant ground advantage against Alan Belcher on the ground with 0 takedowns, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Alan Belcher | Jason Day |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 182 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 118 | 1 029 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Jason Day demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Jason Day capitalized on this activity level, while Alan Belcher's 182-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alan Belcher | Jason Day |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 013 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +25 |
Jason Day started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Alan Belcher is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alan Belcher | Jason Day |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 002 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.