September 16, 2011
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alan Belcher | Jason MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 12 | 13 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 061 | 987 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -31 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (12 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Alan Belcher | Jason MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 080 | 986 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alan Belcher | Jason MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:48 | 3:48 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 355 | 1 117 |
| ELO Change | +50 | -23 |
Alan Belcher earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 3:48, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Alan Belcher | Jason MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 25 | 2 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 39 | 7 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 52 | 5 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 177 | 855 |
| ELO Change | +54 | -54 |
Alan Belcher controlled the striking exchanges with 52 vs 5 total strikes, 25 vs 2 significant strikes, 64.1% vs 28.6% accuracy. Alan Belcher capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alan Belcher | Jason MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:57 | 0:25 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 24 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 171 | 1 013 |
| ELO Change | +47 | -47 |
Alan Belcher controlled Jason MacDonald on the ground with 2:57 of control time, 24 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Alan Belcher | Jason MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 497 | 140 |
| Activity ELO | 1 237 | 1 172 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -19 |
Alan Belcher demonstrated extended layoff with 497 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Alan Belcher capitalized on this activity level, while Jason MacDonald's 140-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alan Belcher | Jason MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 106 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -17 |
Alan Belcher extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jason MacDonald is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alan Belcher | Jason MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 078 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.