December 12, 2006
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alan Belcher | Jorge Santiago |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 017 | 989 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -36 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Alan Belcher | Jorge Santiago |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 001 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alan Belcher | Jorge Santiago |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 2:45 | 2:45 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 066 | 1 005 |
| ELO Change | +108 | -54 |
Alan Belcher gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Alan Belcher | Jorge Santiago |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 29 | 14 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 76 | 59 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 71 | 24 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 078 | 875 |
| ELO Change | +121 | -121 |
Alan Belcher controlled the striking exchanges with 71 vs 24 total strikes, 29 vs 14 significant strikes, 38.2% vs 23.7% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Alan Belcher capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alan Belcher | Jorge Santiago |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:19 | 2:25 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 10 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 989 | 937 |
| ELO Change | +83 | -83 |
Alan Belcher landed 1 knockdown followed by 10 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Alan Belcher | Jorge Santiago |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 110 | 119 |
| Activity ELO | 1 036 | 985 |
| ELO Change | +57 | -23 |
Alan Belcher demonstrated solid activity levels with 110 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Alan Belcher capitalized on this activity level, while Jorge Santiago's 119-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alan Belcher | Jorge Santiago |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 004 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -23 |
Alan Belcher started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jorge Santiago is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alan Belcher | Jorge Santiago |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 001 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.