May 4, 2012
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alan Belcher | Rousimar Palhares |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 103 | 1 137 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -42 |
Alan Belcher's 3-fight experience advantage (13 vs 10 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Alan Belcher for the expected result. Had Rousimar Palhares pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alan Belcher | Rousimar Palhares |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 102 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alan Belcher | Rousimar Palhares |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:18 | 4:18 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 438 | 1 288 |
| ELO Change | +83 | -39 |
Alan Belcher earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 4:18, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Alan Belcher | Rousimar Palhares |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 20 | 0 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 37 | 1 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 29 | 1 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 321 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | +144 | -144 |
Alan Belcher controlled the striking exchanges with 29 vs 1 total strikes, 20 vs 0 significant strikes, 54.1% vs 0.0% accuracy. Alan Belcher capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alan Belcher | Rousimar Palhares |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:14 | 0:07 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 20 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 242 | 1 186 |
| ELO Change | +71 | -71 |
Alan Belcher controlled Rousimar Palhares on the ground with 0 takedowns, 2:14 of control time, 20 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Alan Belcher | Rousimar Palhares |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 231 | 112 |
| Activity ELO | 1 262 | 1 196 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -20 |
Alan Belcher demonstrated standard activity with 231 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Alan Belcher capitalized on this activity level, while Rousimar Palhares's 112-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alan Belcher | Rousimar Palhares |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 4 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 137 | 1 101 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -22 |
Alan Belcher extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rousimar Palhares is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alan Belcher | Rousimar Palhares |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 100 | 1 074 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.