July 6, 2016
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alan Jouban | Belal Muhammad |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 6 | -6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 132 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Alan Jouban's 6-fight experience advantage (7 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Alan Jouban for the expected result. Had Belal Muhammad pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alan Jouban | Belal Muhammad |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 060 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alan Jouban | Belal Muhammad |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 224 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
Alan Jouban earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Alan Jouban | Belal Muhammad |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 86 | 77 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 169 | 199 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 105 | 108 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 3 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 243 | 939 |
| ELO Change | +61 | -61 |
Alan Jouban dominated the striking exchanges with 86 vs 77 significant strikes, 50.9% vs 38.7% accuracy, including 3 devastating knockdowns. Alan Jouban capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alan Jouban | Belal Muhammad |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 8 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:37 | 2:59 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 16 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 1 093 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
Alan Jouban did not secure a significant ground advantage against Belal Muhammad on the ground with 0 takedowns, 1:37 of control time, 16 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Alan Jouban | Belal Muhammad |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 110 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 145 | 985 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -15 |
Alan Jouban demonstrated solid activity levels with 110 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Alan Jouban capitalized on this activity level, while Belal Muhammad's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alan Jouban | Belal Muhammad |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 073 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -18 |
Alan Jouban extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Belal Muhammad is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alan Jouban | Belal Muhammad |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 060 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

