March 18, 2016
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alan Jouban | Brendan O'Reilly |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 110 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Alan Jouban's 3-fight experience advantage (6 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Alan Jouban for the expected result. Had Brendan O'Reilly pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alan Jouban | Brendan O'Reilly |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 041 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alan Jouban | Brendan O'Reilly |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:15 | 2:15 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 204 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +59 | -26 |
Alan Jouban earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 2:15, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Alan Jouban | Brendan O'Reilly |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 32 | 8 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 40 | 17 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 37 | 12 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 182 | 907 |
| ELO Change | +81 | -81 |
Alan Jouban controlled the striking exchanges with 37 vs 12 total strikes, 32 vs 8 significant strikes, 80.0% vs 47.1% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Alan Jouban capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alan Jouban | Brendan O'Reilly |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:34 | 0:46 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 073 | 999 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Alan Jouban landed 1 knockdown followed by 5 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Alan Jouban | Brendan O'Reilly |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 169 | 316 |
| Activity ELO | 1 108 | 992 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -17 |
Alan Jouban demonstrated solid activity levels with 169 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Alan Jouban capitalized on this activity level, while Brendan O'Reilly's 316-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alan Jouban | Brendan O'Reilly |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 051 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -19 |
Alan Jouban started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Brendan O'Reilly is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alan Jouban | Brendan O'Reilly |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 041 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.