March 17, 2017
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alan Jouban | Gunnar Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 128 | 1 182 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +35 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (9 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Alan Jouban | Gunnar Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 058 | 1 089 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alan Jouban | Gunnar Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 0:46 | 0:46 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 227 | 1 363 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +57 |
Gunnar Nelson earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 0:46, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Alan Jouban was submitted.
| Metric | Alan Jouban | Gunnar Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 17 | 8 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 33 | 18 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 17 | 17 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 288 | 1 194 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Alan Jouban controlled the striking through solid significant strike edge (17 vs 8). However, since Alan Jouban lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Gunnar Nelson's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Alan Jouban | Gunnar Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 3:02 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 1 093 | 1 404 |
| ELO Change | -72 | +72 |
Gunnar Nelson dominated Alan Jouban on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 3:02 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Alan Jouban | Gunnar Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 91 | 315 |
| Activity ELO | 1 157 | 1 160 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Gunnar Nelson demonstrated standard activity with 315 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Gunnar Nelson capitalized on this activity level, while Alan Jouban's 91-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alan Jouban | Gunnar Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 077 | 1 116 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +26 |
Gunnar Nelson extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Alan Jouban is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alan Jouban | Gunnar Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 058 | 1 088 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.