July 14, 2015
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alan Jouban | Matt Dwyer |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 109 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (4 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Alan Jouban | Matt Dwyer |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 042 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alan Jouban | Matt Dwyer |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 186 | 1 029 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Alan Jouban earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Alan Jouban | Matt Dwyer |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 51 | 29 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 104 | 117 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 63 | 34 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 168 | 959 |
| ELO Change | +47 | -47 |
Alan Jouban controlled the striking exchanges with 63 vs 34 total strikes, 51 vs 29 significant strikes, 49.0% vs 24.8% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Alan Jouban capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alan Jouban | Matt Dwyer |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:53 | 0:14 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 8 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 070 | 940 |
| ELO Change | +59 | -59 |
Alan Jouban landed 1 knockdown followed by 8 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Alan Jouban | Matt Dwyer |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 137 | 143 |
| Activity ELO | 1 097 | 1 007 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -19 |
Alan Jouban demonstrated solid activity levels with 137 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Alan Jouban capitalized on this activity level, while Matt Dwyer's 143-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alan Jouban | Matt Dwyer |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 051 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -19 |
Alan Jouban extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Matt Dwyer is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alan Jouban | Matt Dwyer |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 042 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.