November 7, 2014
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alan Jouban | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 059 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +37 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Alan Jouban | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 001 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alan Jouban | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 071 | 1 112 |
| ELO Change | -49 | +49 |
Warlley Alves earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Alan Jouban | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 79 | 47 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 156 | 106 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 96 | 51 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 069 | 1 096 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Alan Jouban controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (96 vs 51 total strikes), significant strike advantage (79 vs 47). However, since Alan Jouban lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Warlley Alves's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Alan Jouban | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:35 | 4:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 12 |
| Ground ELO | 985 | 1 203 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +41 |
Warlley Alves controlled Alan Jouban on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 4:00 of control time, 12 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Alan Jouban | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 85 | 162 |
| Activity ELO | 1 007 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +37 |
Warlley Alves demonstrated solid activity levels with 162 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Warlley Alves capitalized on this activity level, while Alan Jouban's 85-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alan Jouban | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 005 | 1 048 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +25 |
Warlley Alves extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Alan Jouban is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alan Jouban | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 001 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.