March 18, 2016
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alan Patrick | Damien Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 073 | 973 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Alan Patrick's 3-fight experience advantage (4 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Alan Patrick for the expected result. Had Damien Brown pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alan Patrick | Damien Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 043 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alan Patrick | Damien Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 135 | 970 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Alan Patrick earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Alan Patrick | Damien Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 25 | 15 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 39 | 25 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 117 | 51 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 074 | 965 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -35 |
Alan Patrick dominated the striking exchanges with 117 vs 51 total strikes, 25 vs 15 significant strikes. Alan Patrick capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alan Patrick | Damien Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 5 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 7 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 12:21 | 0:36 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 18 | 8 |
| Ground ELO | 1 116 | 925 |
| ELO Change | +75 | -75 |
Alan Patrick dominated Damien Brown on the ground with 5 vs 1 takedowns, 12:21 of control time, 18 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Alan Patrick | Damien Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 274 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 084 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
Alan Patrick demonstrated standard activity with 274 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Alan Patrick capitalized on this activity level, while Damien Brown's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alan Patrick | Damien Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 052 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -19 |
Alan Patrick started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Damien Brown is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alan Patrick | Damien Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 043 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.