February 2, 2018
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alan Patrick | Damir Hadzovic |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 131 | 985 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Alan Patrick's 3-fight experience advantage (6 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Alan Patrick for the expected result. Had Damir Hadzovic pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alan Patrick | Damir Hadzovic |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 082 | 986 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alan Patrick | Damir Hadzovic |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 210 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
Alan Patrick earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Alan Patrick | Damir Hadzovic |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 28 | 20 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 45 | 25 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 91 | 67 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 145 | 1 017 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Alan Patrick edged the striking exchanges with 91 vs 67 total strikes, 28 vs 20 significant strikes, 62.2% vs 80.0% accuracy. Alan Patrick capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alan Patrick | Damir Hadzovic |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 9 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 15 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 12:26 | 0:48 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 17 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 1 256 | 953 |
| ELO Change | +52 | -52 |
Alan Patrick dominated Damir Hadzovic on the ground with 9 vs 0 takedowns, 12:26 of control time, 17 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Alan Patrick | Damir Hadzovic |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 498 | 252 |
| Activity ELO | 1 126 | 990 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -15 |
Alan Patrick demonstrated extended layoff with 498 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Alan Patrick capitalized on this activity level, while Damir Hadzovic's 252-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alan Patrick | Damir Hadzovic |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 100 | 988 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -17 |
Alan Patrick extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Damir Hadzovic is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alan Patrick | Damir Hadzovic |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 082 | 986 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.