September 11, 2020
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alan Patrick | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 14 |
| Experience Gap | -6 | 6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 080 | 1 182 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
King Green's 6-fight experience advantage (14 vs 8 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding King Green for the expected result. Had Alan Patrick pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alan Patrick | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 037 | 1 071 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alan Patrick | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 117 | 1 241 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +36 |
King Green earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Alan Patrick | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 19 | 61 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 69 | 95 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 38 | 109 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 995 | 1 258 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
King Green dominated the striking exchanges with 109 vs 38 total strikes, 61 vs 19 significant strikes, 64.2% vs 27.5% accuracy. King Green capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alan Patrick | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:43 | 7:31 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 9 |
| Ground ELO | 1 074 | 1 254 |
| ELO Change | -87 | +87 |
King Green dominated Alan Patrick on the ground with 4 vs 1 takedowns, 7:31 of control time, 9 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Alan Patrick | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 707 | 42 |
| Activity ELO | 1 087 | 1 298 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +68 |
King Green demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 42 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, King Green capitalized on this activity level, while Alan Patrick's 707-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alan Patrick | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 055 | 1 106 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +27 |
King Green extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Alan Patrick is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alan Patrick | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 036 | 1 071 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.